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Happy Wednesday. And welcome back to Cornhole Champions. I’m Zachary Oren Smith.
I read the news pretty closely, and there’s a pattern I want to illustrate for you. We’re talking about departures. Some of these are by choice. Some are by force. All of them carry real costs that ripple far beyond the individual decision to get up and leave. Let’s set the scene with some numbers.
In the first quarter of 2025, Iowa’s real GDP decreased by 6.1%. For comparison, the nation’s real GDP declined 0.5% during the same period. If you compare the first quarter of 2025 to one year before, the value of goods Iowa’s manufacturing sector exported decreased by 8.6%. The commodity markets for corn and soybeans are trending low and are expected to stay there. The state is among 14 states losing more than 30% of its college graduates.
And as a favorite Iowa economist of mine, Peter Orazem of Iowa State University, keeps pointing out, Iowa’s post-pandemic job growth lags in every sector, and at the heart of the issue is the state’s labor supply. Would-be employers cannot find workers or are unwilling to pay workers what it would take to attract them here.
The three stories I have here shouldn’t be read as separate. They’re symptoms: advance warning of an issue at our economic foundation. Whether by hook or by crook, our Iowa towns are dealing with shrink. And the policies underpinning these stories are turbocharging that exodus.
But first…
Iowa Starting Line’s new series The Hot Spot has launched. It’s a deep dive into the confluence of forces that help explain Iowa’s high cancer rates, and it’s a big lift of a project. But it’s one I know you are interested in.
In the coming weeks, Cornhole Champions will feature conversations with people we spoke to for the series. I’m talking about voices from people who think a lot about cancer. Folks from the Iowa Cancer Registry. Experts who study the impact of nitrate and pesticides on our health. Oncologists trying to make a difference in their patients’ lives. And much, much more. I’m excited to share these conversations with you.
But I also wanted to point you to Starting Line’s flagship newsletter. It’s the best way to follow the work. New essays appear first in the newsletter on Tuesday mornings. So make sure to sign up for that.
And now, three stories…
Highway to healthcare - It's been one year since Iowa's near-total abortion ban took effect. The numbers tell the story: a 74% drop in abortion services in Iowa, but people are still getting care—they're just traveling hundreds of miles and paying thousands more to get it.
The Chicago Abortion Fund partners with the Iowa Abortion Access Fund. And according to its new data, the organization has fielded support requests from over 870 Iowans whose care needs ran counter to Iowa’s ban. Of those, 75% traveled out-of-state for care. And travel expenses make care more expensive. Iowa Abortion Access Fund spending to cover costs doubled, including a particularly acute case that cost $19,000.
Iowa's rural healthcare system was already in a pinch before the abortion ban. The state ranked 44th nationally in physicians per capita before the ban. 97 of 99 counties are considered health professional shortage areas. There's been a 12% decline in medical residency applications to states with abortion bans, pointing to Iowa's physician shortage will worsen. And that shortage impacts care outcomes for other patients, including infants: Iowa posted the third-highest increase in infant mortality nationally in 2022—a 30% jump compared to the 3% national average.
Cut and deported - This month, Ottumwa Mayor Rick Johnson announced that the Trump administration is revoking visas for 200 local meatpacking employees from Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. These workers—nearly 10% of the JBS Foods plant's workforce—are being told their employment is over and they need to leave the country immediately.
As Sentient Food reports, JBS subsidiary Pilgrim's Pride made the single largest donation to Trump's 2025 inauguration, $5 million, only to watch Trump's immigration policies immediately force out 200 of their workers.
JBS represents a $145 million annual payroll in a town of 25,000 people, supporting 161 local producers with $1 billion annually in livestock payments. The company invested $3.5 million in Ottumwa's "Hometown Strong" program, building affordable housing and funding community facilities. Now, part of that workforce is being gutted by the very administration Pilgrim’s Pride bankrolled.
Pride and Exodus - Our intern Victor Robbins spent weeks interviewing LGBTQ Iowans for a story that honestly broke my heart. Over half of LGBTQ young people in Iowa have considered leaving the state. For transgender and nonbinary people, that number jumps to 69%.
A state that once led on civil rights now leads on rolling them back—becoming the first state in US history to remove gender identity protections from civil rights law.
Only 37% of LGBTQ+ youth plan to work in Iowa after college graduation. For a state already struggling with massive brain drain, losing more than half of any demographic group should set off some warning bells.
The question I keep coming back to is simple: if we want Iowa to be a great place to raise kids and build businesses, why are we making life harder for the very people this state needs to stay?
Question for you
A reader of mine reached out about Victor’s story, saying she felt—I think reasonably—like we weren’t doing enough reporting on why some LGBTQ Iowans choose to stay.
As someone who raises a lot of cane about the goings-on in this state, I still think it's important to foreground that I like living here. It’s why the RAYGUN “Captive” sticker always rubbed me the wrong way. Certainly, some people are here and have no choice in that. But the full picture is more complicated. And so for this week…
Why do you live in Iowa? Is there a person who keeps you here? A job? Is it a place? What keeps you here?
Write me back with your thoughts. I might feature your response in Friday's edition. Send your answers to zach@iowastartingline.com.
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Cornhole Champions is a weekly podcast powered by Iowa Starting Line. It’s produced by me and edited by Rebecca Steinberg. Our music is by Avery Mossman and show art by Desirée Tapia. We are a proud member of the Iowa Writers Collaborative.
Your friendly neighborhood reporter,
Zachary Oren Smith
Political correspondent
Iowa Starting Line
